With only a few small updates this week, we’re going to spend the bulk of this post grappling with the new “big question.” The reopened parks seem to have found their groove…so how long will it last? When will we be “back to normal”? Read on to see our thoughts on this question, plus some updates on parks pass and Rise of the Resistance.
PREVIOUS UPDATE + WDW MASTERPOST
In case you’re behind (it’s easy to fall behind these days…even for us), our last update was on August 18. If you’re brand new and would just like a thorough look at the Disney World reopening, we have a Disney World Reopening Masterpost that covers the basics and links to our deeper content.
Passholder Parks Pass Availability Continues to Improve
With the passholder refund deadline now in the past, there’s little reason to obsess over passholder availability on parks pass. Happily, Disney has continued to expand availability for passholders, though added space often runs out quickly. With Florida schools mostly in session now, weekdays are seeing a good amount of space, while weekends are more limited.
Rise of the Resistance Boarding Group Enhancements
The boarding pass system for Rise of the Resistance was tweaked this week to automatically build your party of people inside the park. This should overall enhance the experience of joining a group. Unfortunately, Rise continues to have technical difficulties, including opening as late as 2PM on August 22.
Disney Furloughs Extended + Thoughts
We were excited last week when Disney finally reach an agreement to allow Equity performers to return to the parks, but it looks like that excitement may have been misplaced, as extended furloughs of Disney employees purportedly include many entertainers.
The last few weeks my tone was mostly that Disney needed to lead and reach an agreement with Equity, and I was pleased when they did that partially by opening an on-site COVID testing station.
But apparently the business side of things is more strained than one might have hoped, and even with an agreement in place Disney has decided they need to proceed without the bulk of the stage entertainment for the time being.
Heading into the school year, it looks like we’re officially in a “cost-cutting spiral.” As long as Disney is putting out a reduced product (i.e. almost no entertainment), they won’t bring guests back, so they’ll make less money and have to make more cuts. (NB: While this is mostly an obvious concept in business, I want to note that I first read it discussed in the context of Disney parks years ago at Disney Tourist Blog.)
When will the parks be back to normal?
Where does this end? Let’s step back. At one point it felt like theme parks would remain closed until late-2020, but Universal surprised everyone with the early June reopening, and Disney followed with a mid-July reopening.
Given that the pandemic was nowhere near resolved in June/July, my leading belief was that these parks had a singular goal—reopen safely and don’t close again, no matter what.
My thinking was that the uncertainty of the future meant they couldn’t just leave the parks closed until the “right time.” And the parks could definitely operate safely with severely limited capacity and a host of safety measures. So it was just about finding / adjusting the sweet spot for operations going forward.
(This is a good time to note that “normal” at the parks is constantly changing. And we’re likely to see many small changes over the next year-plus, rather than singular times with lots of huge changes. I still think there are good “target” dates for large shifts, though.)
I mention this because if you compare the parks now to their ideal state, then they look bad. But if you didn’t expect the parks to be reopened at all until late-2020, the current skeleton operations are at least something.
The downside of this approach (putting aside the real safety related concerns of operating a theme park right now) is that Disney starts to anchor itself in this lesser product. A year from now, we might be freed from the virus but Disney has adjusted to a world with significantly less costs, which they might want to hang onto.
I’m optimistic though, because of one thing—Disney World’s 50th birthday. October 1, 2021 marks the 50th anniversary of the opening of Walt Disney World. As part of the push to this date, we still expect to see new attractions like TRON, Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, and a bunch of new stuff at Epcot.
I’m also optimistic we’ll see new entertainment as part of this celebration. If you assume that one way or another we aren’t driven by fear of the virus in mid-2021, Disney will have a chance to fill their parks with a big anniversary push.
Again, if I’m being optimistic, the nature of the pandemic and the timing of Disney World’s 50th anniversary make this slump different than typical economic slumps. Disney overestimated how quickly people would rush back into the parks, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong about pent-up demand. They were just wrong about whether that demand would translate into action right now.
Disney has scheduled the parks pass reservation system to be used through September 2021. Late-2021 appears to be a reasonable target for when the US will be relieved of the burdens of the pandemic. Disney World’s 50th anniversary is officially October 1, 2021.
Changes in the virus spread could bring a change to guest behavior before October 2021, but many signs point to this being the time when you’d expect a full-fledged resurgence at the parks. Until then, we might see some progress, but I don’t think it’ll be a return to normalcy.
Christmas 2020 could be interesting, but I think March 2021—spring break season and traditional peak season—will be the next big test for the parks. We might even have a vaccine by then. While I suspect we’ll see a few holiday-related tweaks before then, I’m expecting the parks to stay mostly as-is until March 2021.